Economy News — GDP, Inflation, Policy
Keep up with the macroeconomic forces that shape market direction. This section covers GDP growth, inflation data, RBI rate decisions, government fiscal policy, trade balance, and other indicators that drive investor sentiment and corporate earnings. Understanding the economic backdrop is essential for making sense of market moves — whether it is a rally driven by rate cut expectations or a sell-off triggered by fiscal deficit concerns. The news here connects macro trends to what they mean for your portfolio.
PM GatiShakti: over 400 infra projects worth Rs 20.23 lakh cr recommended for approval
Over 400 infrastructure projects worth approximately Rs 20.23 lakh crore have been approved under the PM GatiShakti initiative. The initiative aims to reduce logistics costs by developing integrated infrastructure across India. It integrates more than 1,800 data layers covering various sectors, including transportation and telecommunication. The Network Planning Group reviewed these projects for investments exceeding Rs 500 crore. This digital platform enhances data-driven infrastructure plannin
Why LTCG tax is back in focus: What the 12.5% rate and ₹1.25 lakh exemption mean for investors
LTCG tax is back in focus after SBI Research proposed scrapping the tax on equity investments. Here are the latest LTCG tax rates, the ₹1.25 lakh exemption on eligible equity gains, property taxation rules and what investors need to know.
How To Choose Trustworthy Online Loan Platforms For Personal Loans In India
Digital loans in India offer fast borrowing but face risks from fake apps and unregulated lenders. Borrowers should verify RBI regulation and transparency before applying.
FM Sitharaman Keeps Door Open To LTCG Tax Rethink As Budget 2027 Prep Begins
Market participants have raised the issue of whether all asset classes should be treated similarly, Sitharaman said, noting that the government will keenly hear views on these matters.
Global Market: Eurozone bond yields fall as tech stock selloff boosts safe-haven demand
Eurozone government bond yields decline as renewed turbulence in technology stocks drives demand for safe-haven assets. Germany’s 10-year yield falls to 3.43%, while US Treasury yields also retreat. However, fiscal concerns and interest-rate uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook for global bond markets.
Scindia calls for faster tailored credit flow to Northeastern states at bankers' conclave
During a recent gathering at Mizoram University, Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia urged financial institutions to provide credit solutions that address the specific needs of the Northeast region. He criticized generic banking products as insufficient, emphasizing customization for each state. Mizoram Chief Minister Lalduhoma shared initiatives requiring investment, hinting at potential economic drivers for the area that could facilitate sustained growth and enhance public welfare.
IMF's bullish call: Why is India sprinting when the world stumbles?
The IMF has raised India's growth forecast to 7% for both FY27 and FY28, highlighting the country's resilience despite higher oil prices and a slowing global economy. Strong domestic consumption, infrastructure spending, recovering private investment and AI-related capital expenditure are supporting growth, though inflation, energy costs and weaker rural demand remain risks.
Inflation Hits A 23-Month High, But Tier-II Cities Are Keeping India's Festive Mood Alive
Strong festive demand is visible across physical markets, not just online channels, noted National Joint General Secretary, Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) Sumit Agarwal.
Festive sales 2026: decoding discounts and behavioural nudges behind e-commerce deals
E-commerce giants use psychological tricks like countdown timers, artificial price inflations, and easy financing to drive impulse buys during festival sales. Experts warn consumers to track price histories and look out for hidden fees on ‘No-Cost EMI’ options before buying.
LTCG tax removal on the table? FM Sitharaman says Budget consultations will hear investors’ views
Will LTCG tax be scrapped? Union Finance Minister Sitharaman signals openness to debate as SBI Research urges tax relief to attract foreign investors.
Bayer’s DirectAcres crosses 2,00,000 acres in India
Bayer brings together its capabilities in Seeds & Traits, Crop Protection, Digital Farming Solutions and agronomy with tailored mechanization and digital advisory to support farmers through the transition.
FM Sitharaman's LTCG tax remarks lift Sensex by 1,100 points. Can markets hope for a review?
Indian equities rallied on Tuesday, with the Sensex surging over 1,100 points after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said discussions around long-term capital gains tax (LTCG) and securities transaction tax (STT) were ongoing. IT stocks also supported gains, led by HCL Tech and TCS. However, mixed broader-market trends, elevated crude prices and inflation concerns continued to temper investor sentiment.
FM Sitharaman's LTCG tax remarks lift Sensex by 1,000 points. Can markets hope for a review?
Indian equities rallied on Tuesday, with the Sensex surging over 1,000 points after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said discussions around long-term capital gains tax (LTCG) and securities transaction tax (STT) were ongoing. IT stocks also supported gains, led by HCL Tech and TCS. However, mixed broader-market trends, elevated crude prices and inflation concerns continued to temper investor sentiment.
FM Sitharaman's LTCG tax remarks lift Sensex by 900 points. Can markets read hope of review?
Indian equities rallied on Tuesday, with the Sensex surging over 1,000 points after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said discussions around long-term capital gains tax (LTCG) and securities transaction tax (STT) were ongoing. IT stocks also supported gains, led by HCL Tech and TCS. However, mixed broader-market trends, elevated crude prices and inflation concerns continued to temper investor sentiment.
Sitharaman Keeps Door Open On LTCG Tax Rethink, Says Budget 2027 Prep Underway
Market participants have raised the issue of whether all asset classes should be treated similarly, Sitharaman said, noting that the government will keenly hear views on these matters.
Rule out V-shaped recovery, markets can fall more, says PL Capital with Nifty 12-month target at 27,589
PL Capital remains cautious on the Nifty after its eight-week losing streak, ruling out a quick V-shaped recovery. The brokerage has trimmed earnings estimates but sees valuation comfort in largecaps, while flagging inflation, FII outflows and demand risks.
PM GatiShakti completes 5 years, next phase focuses on multimodal connectivity: Piyush Goyal
Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal on Tuesday said the PM GatiShakti National Master Plan would continue to support multimodal connectivity, faster infrastructure development and greater logistics efficiency as the initiative completed five years.
Global Market: BoE's Megan Greene says UK interest rates may not be restrictive enough
Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene said the IMF’s upward revision to the UK’s economic growth forecast supports her view that monetary policy remains insufficiently restrictive. She warned that delaying interest rate hikes could prolong inflationary pressures, highlighting divisions among policymakers over balancing inflation control against economic growth and borrowing costs.
Mortgage hedging adds selling pressure to US Treasury market as yields surge
Rising US Treasury yields and mortgage rates have triggered increased mortgage-related hedging, adding selling pressure to the bond market. However, analysts expect the impact to remain limited compared with previous selloffs, as refinancing incentives decline and the mortgage market shrinks. Oil prices, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy remain key drivers of yields.
The Andaman Islands could be India's next big trade trump card
India is focusing on strengthening the Andaman and Nicobar Islands' strategic maritime role for regional trade. The upcoming Andaman Dialogue 2027 will emphasize maritime infrastructure and economic cooperation among countries in the Indo-Pacific region. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal highlighted the islands as an economic bridge, particularly for trade and logistics efforts. Enhanced cooperation between regional ports and industries is also proposed to bolster maritime security.
SBI Research calls for abolition of LTCG tax on equities to boost foreign capital inflows
According to SBI Research, removing the long-term capital gains tax on equities could revitalize investment levels. The report emphasizes extending the holding period to two to three years as a strategy to boost investor morale. Faced with foreign portfolio outflows, the need for policy reforms is clear.
India's September Retail Inflation Rises To 5.54% On Higher Food, Core Prices
Food inflation remained the principal driver of headline CPI in Sep'26, driven by a surge in vegetable prices and broadbased pressures across the food basket, and within vegetables, onion inflation more than doubled in Sep'26 vs Aug'26, while garlic and lemon inflation also increased.
India, America expanding cooperation across sectors: US ambassador Sergio Gor
Kolkata and the United States are strengthening ties across sectors such as defence, IT, and healthcare. Recent military exercises involving 500 troops and significant investments showcase this growing partnership. American companies are establishing production facilities in India, contributing to economic development in both nations. India plays a crucial role in supplying generic medicines to the US, which enhancing trust.
Blackstone COO flags tech disruption, geopolitical conflicts as global risks; says India's investment climate improving
Blackstone President Jonathan Gray highlighted risks like technology disruption, geopolitical conflicts, and government debt affecting the global economy. He stressed India's progress in infrastructure and foreign investment, which enhance growth prospects. Gray indicated that simpler rules and clearer policies could help attract foreign capital and support nations facing fiscal constraints. Natarajan Chandrasekaran expressed concerns about technology misuse and labor market changes.
Global Market: Japan bond yields diverge as investors weigh inflation, BOJ outlook
Japanese government bond yields moved in opposite directions on Tuesday, with shorter-term yields rising and longer-dated yields falling as investors assessed inflation pressures, wholesale price data and the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook.
Global Market: Japan’s Nikkei slides over 2% as AI stock selloff deepens on US chip weakness
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.64%, extending losses to four sessions as AI-related and semiconductor stocks declined amid Wall Street weakness. Geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns added pressure, with wholesale prices rising 6.8% year-on-year in September. Kioxia Holdings plunged 13.02%, while shipping stocks gained despite broader market weakness.
Nifty Expiry Today Prediction, 13 Oct: Will bulls or bears win? Key support and resistance levels traders must watch
Indian equities opened higher, but global uncertainty, elevated inflation and crude prices weighed on sentiment. The Nifty’s broad trading range is 22,180–22,650, with a break above or below those levels likely to signal its next direction.
Canada to lead largest trade delegation to India in over 30 years, CEPA talks in focus
Canada is leading its largest trade delegation to India in more than 30 years, with nearly 300 business delegates set to explore partnerships across key sectors as both countries advance negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said.
PM Modi's free trade push could lead to $140 billion GDP gain for India
A more protectionist US could unexpectedly benefit India as New Delhi expands its free-trade agreements (FTAs) to diversify export markets and attract investment. A World Trade Organization-based model estimates that India’s concluded and proposed trade deals, including agreements with the EU and New Zealand, could add about $140 billion to GDP by 2035, lifting it 1.7% above the baseline.
IMF Raises India's FY27 GDP Growth Forecast To 7%, Cuts China's 2026 Outlook
IMF India Outlook: The IMF cited robust domestic demand and services activity in India despite elevated oil prices.
IMF raises India’s FY27 growth forecast to 7%
The International Monetary Fund has increased India's economic growth projections for FY27 and FY28 to 7%. This adjustment reflects resilient domestic demand and strong performance in the services sector. India's GDP growth reached 7.8% in FY26, exceeding expectations during the April-June quarter. Additionally, other major institutions like the World Bank have raised India's growth forecasts as well.
IMF sees India bucking global slowdown, raises 2026 growth forecast to 7%
IMF projects India's growth for 2026 at 7%, up from previous estimates. This revision is attributed to resilient domestic demand and robust services activity. Other agencies, such as the World Bank, also raised their growth forecasts, reflecting confidence in India's economic stability. Despite challenges like higher oil prices, India's growth outlook remains significantly improved. However, persistent global uncertainties could affect future growth and demand.
IMF raises India’s 2026 growth forecast to 7%, says India stands out even as global growth slows
The International Monetary Fund has increased its growth forecast for India to 7% for 2026, citing strong domestic demand. The forecast for 2027 has also been upgraded, suggesting continued economic momentum. Despite higher oil prices, India has shown resilience compared to other economies facing challenges. The IMF's assessment indicates that India stands out among emerging markets with a favorable growth outlook.
Bond yields rise to 3-year high on RBI liquidity cut
In a significant financial shift, India's government bond yields have hit a three-and-a-half-year high of 7.39%, primarily due to the central bank's strategy to minimize liquidity. Over the past month, the yield on the 10-year benchmark has surged by 38 basis points. The Reserve Bank of India plans a bond sale of ₹25,000 crore this Tuesday while also raising the cash reserve ratio to 99%, effective from mid-October.
Eye on the price: Retail inflation at 5.54% in September, most on new base
India's retail inflation increased to 5.54% year-on-year in September, the highest since January. This rise is attributed to higher food prices, particularly onions and other essentials. Economists predict inflation could approach 6% in the coming months, influencing upcoming policy decisions. The Reserve Bank of India has indicated a likelihood of rate hikes due to ongoing price pressures. Rural areas experienced sharper inflation increases, outpacing urban regions this month.
US stocks: Nasdaq ends lower as oil prices surge ahead of earnings, economic data
The Nasdaq composite index faced a downturn as oil prices surged following attacks on a Saudi airport. With major banks set to release their earnings reports, investor focus sharpens this week. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones saw mixed performances, while the energy sector thrived. Heightened inflation concerns due to rising oil costs have begun to sway investor confidence, mirroring a cautious market atmosphere tied to earnings and economic uncertainties.
Centre & states to draft rules for existing arrest cases under GST
The Centre will collaborate with states to create standard procedures for handling arrest cases. Starting April 1, 2027, an invoice management system will be mandatory, minimizing human errors during digital matching. A quarterly review of GST refund risk assessment will also be implemented to maintain consistency across jurisdictions. The proposed changes aim to decriminalize several GST offences and decrease litigation for businesses.
India draws $351 billion in Greenfield FDI, outpaces China
Speaking to ET, Nikolaus Lang, managing director & senior partner at BCG highlighted the Indian market as the biggest draw for investors amid a sweeping global realignment. He, however, stressed on sustained focus on infrastructure development, skilling and cost competitiveness for India to further enhance its manufacturing footprint on a global scale.
India draws $351 billion in greenfield FDI, outpaces China
Speaking to ET, Nikolaus Lang, managing director & senior partner at BCG highlighted the Indian market as the biggest draw for investors amid a sweeping global realignment. He, however, stressed on sustained focus on infrastructure development, skilling and cost competitiveness for India to further enhance its manufacturing footprint on a global scale.
Wheat sowing faces heat from water shortage this winter
Farmers in India are likely to reduce wheat planting this winter due to water scarcity and low minimum support prices. Regions such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh may see the most significant impact from these conditions. The state governments are encouraging farmers to consider crops that require less water, which may lead to a shift in crop choices.
Cleveland Fed's Hammack backs restrictive policy, says better if it comes 'relatively quickly'
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack has stressed the urgency of adopting a strict monetary policy as a response to mounting inflation that now permeates various sectors, not just energy. She advocates for prompt adjustments to keep inflation on target at 2%, emphasizing transparency in Fed policies to aid both households and businesses in their financial planning amidst rising prices.
UK announces £1 billion in new commercial deals with India
The two sides also agreed to exchange data annually on the use of CETA, which came into effect on July 15. The data will cover businesses' claims for lower tariffs and feedback on implementation, beginning a year after the pact comes into force. "Communities across the UK and India are set to benefit from over £1 billion in new deals.
Broken Levers To Forward Guidance: How Two US Economists Won The 2026 Nobel By Fixing Central Banking
Their research shows how expectations about future income, prices and interest rates shape spending decisions, business behaviour and the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Earning ₹50,000, ₹1 lakh or ₹2 lakh a month? Here's how much you could save in 10 years
A consistent monthly investment can help salaried individuals build wealth over 10 years. For those earning ₹50,000, ₹1 lakh or ₹2 lakh a month, the potential corpus depends on how much they invest, the returns they earn and how inflation affects the future purchasing power of their savings.
Government allows 5,841 tonnes of sugar export to EU under quota-based duty concession scheme
"The quantity of 5,841 MT of sugar to be exported to the EU from India under TRQ (tariff rate quota) for the year 2026-27 (October 2026 to September 2027) has been notified," the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) has said in a public notice dated October 9.
Centre to set up high-level committee within a week to address sugarcane farmers' grievances
Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Food Minister Pralhad Joshi held detailed discussions at the Pusa campus with a delegation of farmers from the two major sugarcane-growing states. About 80-90 farmers from different organisations attended, along with state ministers.
Inside Sept's 5.54% CPI Inflation Spike: Onion Prices Double; Ginger, Garlic Lead Food Basket
India's retail inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.83% in August, while food inflation accelerated to 7.74%. Onion inflation surged to 108.09%, with ginger, garlic and lemon also recording sharp year-on-year price increases.
Are you 30, 40 or 50? Here's how much retirement savings you may need at your age
Retirement planning must account for inflation and decades of expenses after regular income stops. With 7% annual inflation, someone spending ₹50,000 a month today could need a retirement corpus of ₹2.20 crore to ₹11.95 crore by age 60, depending on their current age and years until retirement.
From pharma to Scotch whisky, UK has "huge" export potential in India: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal
Speaking at the India-UK JETCO Business Plenary on Monday, Goyal highlighted the complementary nature of the two economies and stressed the need to strengthen economic partnerships to unlock new growth opportunities.
US Stocks | Oil surge keeps S&P 500, Nasdaq in check before earnings; Salesforce lifts Dow
US stocks were mixed on Monday as technology shares came under pressure amid rising oil prices and ahead of major bank earnings and inflation data. The Dow rose 0.21%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.08% and the Nasdaq slipped 0.04%. Investors also assessed Fed rate expectations and corporate updates.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does RBI monetary policy affect the stock market?
When the RBI cuts interest rates, borrowing becomes cheaper for companies and consumers, which tends to boost earnings growth and makes equities more attractive relative to fixed-income investments — so stock prices generally rise. Rate hikes have the opposite effect. But the market often reacts more to the RBI's commentary and forward guidance than the actual rate decision, because investors are pricing in what comes next, not what happened today.
What economic indicators matter most for investors?
GDP growth rate gives you the big picture on economic expansion. CPI inflation tells you whether the RBI is likely to tighten or ease policy. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of manufacturing and services activity. Industrial production (IIP), GST collections, and auto sales data give real-time signals on economic momentum. Trade deficit data and foreign exchange reserves indicate external sector health.
How does the Union Budget impact the markets?
The Budget affects markets through changes in tax rates (corporate and personal), capital expenditure allocations, fiscal deficit targets, and sector-specific policies like production-linked incentives. Markets can react sharply on Budget day based on whether the government prioritises growth, fiscal discipline, or populist spending. Infrastructure, defence, and consumption sectors are often the most sensitive to Budget announcements.